What happens to $93 billion in ad spend when people stop searching?

What happens to $93 billion in ad spend when people stop searching?

Google Search is the largest ad product in the U.S., dominating both key drivers: MAUs and ARPU. In 2024 alone, it generated $93 billion in ad revenue.

But that model depends on one thing: people showing up with questions.

Now tools like ChatGPT are changing that, pressuring both Google’s user base and engagement.

So what happens next?

This chart maps the U.S. ad economy by Monthly Active Users (MAUs) × Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), with each box sized by total ad revenue.

Google dominates.

But if that position starts to erode, and ChatGPT doesn’t monetize through ads, where does the spend go?

A few possibilities:
- YouTube: Google’s logical fallback. It has massive scale and, unlike Search, still has room to grow ARPU.
- Meta or Amazon: both can absorb performance dollars with high efficiency.
- Or... it just disappears: Fewer queries and clicks on Google’s ads could simply mean less ad spend from SMBs.

The money is up for grabs. Who’s going to take it?